Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for January suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors gained momentum at the start of 2018. Encouragingly, the headline readings for Taiwan and Korea – the two economies where... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Equities and currencies make strong start to 2018 Asian equities and currencies have had a strong start to 2018, but we doubt that their recent performance will be sustained. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate hikes to be the exception rather than the norm Malaysia and Pakistan have both hiked interest rates over the past week, and while the consensus and financial markets are expecting most other central banks in the region to tighten policy in 2018... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4 Our estimates for aggregate EM GDP growth suggest it hit a five-year high over 2017 as a whole, but there are signs that growth slowed in the final quarter of last year. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to drift higher EM inflation remained steady in the final few months of last year, but we think it will drift up over the course of 2018. Higher oil prices will feed through into higher EM fuel inflation over the... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: more rate hikes unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) raised its key policy rate by 25bps to 3.25% today, but with growth set to slow, inflation benign and the currency continuing to strengthen, we suspect this will be a... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4) While Korea’s economy cooled at the end of 2017, we expect growth to regain some momentum in the coming quarters, supported by a turnaround in the tourism sector. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, Trump and trade: the path ahead The trade protection measures that have so far been announced by the Trump administration are fairly small in scope and will not have much of a bearing on the outlook for EM exports. However, we’ve... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Revised TPP deal still good news for Asian members The agreement to press ahead with the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a decent boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia, but it... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do US tariffs mean for Asia? US tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines are likely to cause some short-term disruption in parts of the region, most notably Malaysia, Korea and Vietnam. However, the overall impact... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines’ economy cooled off a bit in Q4, with growth easing to 6.6% y/y. We expect the economy will slow further this year, weighed upon by moderating export growth and sluggish investment. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update As good as it gets for EM currencies EM currencies have strengthened at the start of 2018 and our synthetic EM exchange rate index has jumped to an 18-month high, but we don’t expect the rally to continue. Indeed, we think most EM... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
