Asia Economics Weekly MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-October. Meanwhile... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2) The strength of growth in Q2 more than offset the contraction in Q1, but with the economy still likely to face large external headwinds in the second half of this year, a sustained upturn is unlikely. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia: rebound in inflation nothing to worry about The jump in the headline rate of inflation in Malaysia last month to 1.5% y/y from 0.2% in May, is unlikely to trouble the central bank (BNM). The rise was due to the effects of the elimination of the... 24th July 2019 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea minimum wage U-turn, who will cut rates next? Having hiked the minimum wage aggressively in 2018 and 2019, the Korean government earlier this week announced a very small increase in the minimum wage for next year. The policy shift comes in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Positive newsflow on EM trade unlikely to last The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea signals further rate cuts ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) today cut interest rates by 25bp to 1.50% and signalled that further easing is on the way. Given the poor outlook for growth and the change in sentiment by the central bank, we... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the second quarter growth figures show? Early indicators suggest that GDP growth slowed sharply across Emerging Asia in the second quarter. Although most countries should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year, growth is likely to... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand: worries about a strong baht grow Policymakers and exporters in Thailand are once again voicing concern about the strength of the baht, and earlier today the central bank announced some new measures to put downward pressure on the... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
