Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy lost some momentum in Q4 but still expanded at the fastest pace since 2012 last year. We expect growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, supported by accommodative fiscal... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Surveys point to strong EM export growth in early-2018 Survey-based measures of manufacturers’ export expectations suggest that EM export volume growth is set to strengthen over the coming months. Growth in both EM export volumes and values will, however... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore Budget: Preparing for old age Singapore’s government looks likely to raise taxes in its Budget next week to help fund the costs of its rapidly ageing population. But the country’s strong fiscal position leaves it much better... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to adjust policy The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today was no surprise given the backdrop of an improving economy but very weak price pressures. There was nothing in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed in Q4 after expanding at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q3. We expect the economy to lose a little more steam over the coming quarters against a backdrop of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy cooled at the end of 2017. Less supportive monetary conditions and fiscal policy suggest growth is likely to slow further over the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform? The manufacturing industry in the Philippines has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years. Although the sector should continue to grow strongly in the near term, the medium-term outlook... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018 Despite January’s jump in inflation, the Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates on hold at its first meeting of the year. While most analysts think that BSP will be forced to tighten policy this... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM governments and the great bond sell-off EM governments with the largest financing needs are, in theory at least, most vulnerable to a global spike in bond yields. This includes Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and India. However, it’s worth... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter to 5.2%, from 5.1%, but we doubt the recovery has further to run. While the consensus is expecting growth to accelerate gradually over the... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain Credit growth has continued to slow in some of the countries, namely Thailand and Malaysia, we had previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. However, risks... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit dipped in January but nonetheless remains consistent with solid rates of output growth in most regions. The dip in the headline figure was driven by a fall back... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
