Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that, after a short period in January in which capital flowed into EMs, the emerging world experienced net capital outflows once more in February. So far, the deterioration in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a trade war mean for Asia? Developments in the past couple of weeks point to the risk of trade policy in the US becoming much more protectionist. Given its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, China is likely to be the... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential triggers The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Gradual slowdown ahead GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged down in the final quarter of last year and is likely to ease further over the coming year. While in most cases the slowdown should be relatively gradual, Hong... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The February PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in decent health. While the surveys point to rising prices, the big picture is that inflation in most of these... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Appetite for international bond sales remains strong International bond markets have been inundated with debt issuance from frontier markets over the past couple of years and there’s no sign yet that appetite is waning. Since the start of this year... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Gloss comes off the EM recovery Events over the past month suggested that the Emerging Market (EM) recovery might not be as strong and stable as some seem to think. Economic data for the end of last year pointed to slightly softer... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, for now The Bank of Korea (BoK) today unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its second straight meeting, and the accompanying statement and governor’s press conference suggest the central... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Further slowdown of EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened at the end of last year and early indicators point to further weakness at the start of 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead With most countries in the region now having reported GDP figures for Q4, we estimate that aggregate growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) came in at 4.4% y/y last quarter. While this... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
