EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia policy rate on hold, cut likely in November The dovish statement which accompanied today’s decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave its policy rate on hold at 3.00% suggests that the central bank is leaving the door open to further... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in inflation last month in... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more cuts likely The Bank of Korea sounded more bearish on the outlook for the economy even as it left rates on hold today. As such, we continue to expect more easing this year, with another 25bps cut in October. 30th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown bottoms out in Q2 The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fiscal caution in the Philippines and Indonesia Despite the poor outlook for economic growth and relatively healthy fiscal positions, the Philippines and Indonesia have both recently unveiled relatively cautious budgets for 2020. 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts, but more loosening unlikely The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over, but growth to remain weak For all the bad news on the global economy recently, it looks as if GDP growth across Emerging Asia held broadly stable last quarter. Although growth is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) GDP figures released today for the second quarter show that growth in Thailand slowed sharply to an almost five-year low. With weak global demand and a downturn in the tourism sector likely to drag on... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Global recession fears, Indonesia to move capital city Weak data earlier this week from China and Europe and the fall in long term bond yields in the US have helped raise fears of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. But even if the global economy... 16th August 2019 · 7 mins read
