Asia Economics Update Thailand in no hurry to hike rates The Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% against a backdrop of solid economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. There was nothing in the... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: At least one more rate cut before year-end After cutting its lending rate just a month ago, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. However, with inflation benign and the economic... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) A pick-up in economic growth in the Philippines in Q1 means that we have raised our forecast for 2018 as a whole from 6.0% to 6.5%. However, this still implies a slowdown in the quarters ahead, as... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s growth eased to 5.1% y/y in Q1, from 5.2%, and we see little prospect of a rebound. With policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain... 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The April PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors were lacklustre at the start of Q2. Focussing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies wobble Asian currencies have recently lost a bit of ground against the dollar as rising Treasury yields in the US have helped push the greenback higher. Although uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy Today’s landmark summit between the two Koreas should help to remove a major tail risk for the region’s markets and economies. However, the impact on South Korea’s economy of an easing in tensions is... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
