Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to cut again after today’s pause It was no surprise that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, and it is unlikely to adjust rates at its December meeting either. But with growth likely to... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation will continue to worry central banks There is no immediate threat of any country in Emerging Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation, but persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for central banks and will... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP: no more cuts in 2019, Malaysia SRR cut Governor Diokno was pretty emphatic earlier this week when he said that the central bank (BSP) had “absolutely” “done more than enough” this year. In response we are taking out the interest rate cut... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The jump in growth in Q3 was mainly driven by temporary factors relating to the delayed 2019 budget. Once this distortion drops out, we expect growth to settle at around 6.0% as a tough external... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand cuts rates, more easing likely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its key policy rate to 1.25% today, and with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank will... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: central bank still likely to cut rates next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% today, but with growth set to slow sharply over the next few quarters and inflation likely to remain subdued, we think the central... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at this rate in the third quarter. Our... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) softened slightly last month and continue to suggest that industry remains weak. The PMIs for China gave mixed signals, but on balance provide some hope for a pickup... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Oct.) Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big would the benefits be from RCEP? Further progress towards the establishment of what would be the world’s biggest trade deal, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), is expected over the weekend. Given the... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3) Taiwan’s economy continued to perform strongly last quarter, thanks mainly to an acceleration in government spending and strong export growth. The outperformance of the economy is the main reason why... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
