Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. However, whether Tsai can... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) improved slightly in December, which is consistent with our view that while regional growth remains weak, it has at least bottomed out. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, but further easing next year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged today, but further rate cuts are likely next year. 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Hong Kong’s troubles benefitting Singapore Singapore’s economy appears to be benefitting from tourists and business travellers shunning Hong Kong. Since the Hong Kong protests intensified in July, tourist arrivals to Singapore have picked up... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP on hold, easing to resume in 2020 The Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, but with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain below the mid-point of the BSP’s target, we expect more easing next... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war disruption, peace hopes grow in Mindanao US trade data released earlier this week for October reveal the extent to which the US-China trade war is disrupting regional supply chains. Meanwhile, hopes are rising that martial law in Mindanao... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
