Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia and Philippines hike rates, who’s next? The Philippines and Indonesia hiked interest rates on Thursday, and it is only likely to be a matter of time before other central banks in the region follow them. Pakistan’s central bank is likely to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of solid growth in the third quarter of the year. But with exports set to weaken and fiscal policy being tightened, we expect growth to slow over the next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The winners and losers from the latest tariffs on China US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have a significant impact on most economies in Emerging Asia, including China. Over the long term there could even... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM equities fall much further? The fact that emerging market (EM) equities have dropped a long way recently does not mean that they cannot fall much further, or that they are likely to perform much better than their US peers in the... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest for EM currencies? Although they have recovered a touch in the past couple of days, emerging market (EM) currencies have generally slumped against the dollar since mid-April. These falls shed light on which are most... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports to slow, even if trade war is avoided Asian exports are holding up well for now, but this strength is unlikely to last. Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Most central banks unlikely to follow the Philippines Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to tighten monetary policy aggressively over the rest of this year. The Philippines may even call an emergency policy meeting in the face of soaring inflation... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak labour market to drag on Korea’s economy Korea’s labour market has deteriorated significantly in recent months, and August data due tomorrow are likely to show that conditions remain weak. The government unveiled plans for a sharp rise in... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More rate hikes likely in the Philippines, but not Korea The central bank governor of the Philippines, Nestor Espenilla, today all but confirmed that interest rates will be raised soon, possibly in an emergency meeting before the BSP is next scheduled to... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact of recent market falls The macro impact of the recent falls in Asian markets is likely to be relatively small for most economies. The exceptions are the Philippines and Indonesia, where weaker currencies have forced... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The August PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained lacklustre. Meanwhile, Korean export data suggest export growth in the rest of the region stayed robust last... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hike this year looking increasingly unlikely The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no great surprise given the recent deterioration in the labour market. Looking ahead, with headwinds to growth... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
