Asia Economics Update How far will inflation fall? Inflation will fall sharply across the region over the coming months as the effect of currency falls and supply-side disruptions are outweighed by the impact of falling oil prices and a slump in... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First EM GDP contraction in post-war era The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the emerging world... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam Q1 slowdown, Malaysia on “war footing” First quarter GDP figures for Singapore and Vietnam confirm that a sharp downturn is now underway. The figures for the second quarter are likely to be even worse. Meanwhile, Malaysia today declared... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Policy support being stepped up With economic growth across the region collapsing, policy support is being ramped up aggressively. Having slashed interest rates over the past couple of weeks, central banks have begun to unveil a... 26th March 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Advanced) The sharp contraction in Singapore’s economy in Q1 was deeper than expected, and with global growth collapsing, the worst is yet to come. Given today’s outturn, we are lowering our 2020 GDP growth... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Mar.) There are signs that trade has recovered somewhat from the shock of Chinese factory shutdowns, with both exports and imports bouncing back over the first 20 days of March. But with the world economy... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Currencies under pressure, virus spreads in S E Asia Asian currencies have dropped back sharply in recent days, and with no end in sight to the crisis, further big falls are likely. For most countries, weaker currencies are not much to worry about. The... 20th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad will it get? South East Asia and China are likely to be the worst affected countries by the current crisis, with some places likely to see GDP contract by up to 5% this year. Only a few economies in the region... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more easing to come from the BSP The central bank in the Philippines is likely to ease further in the months ahead after opting to cut its main policy rate by 50bps today. The BSP has not yet introduced loan programmes or targeted... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
