Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in the Philippines fell in November, and looks set to decline further over the coming months due to a combination of lower food and oil prices. If inflation falls back as we... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hikes next year look unlikely While the Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate today for the first time in a year, this is unlikely to mark the start of a tightening cycle. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack The Philippines to gain from lower oil prices Most countries in the region are net oil importers (Malaysia is the key exception) and should gain from the recent drop in oil prices, with the Philippines likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese investment could make problems worse By seeking closer ties and increased investment from China, President Duterte of the Philippines risks repeating the mistakes made by other countries in the region. With the current account deficit... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q3 GDP showed that the economy cooled off in Q3, and with external demand set to weaken and interest rates rising, growth is likely to stay weak over the next... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Asian growth? Growth slowed significantly in Emerging Asia last year, and is likely to remain fairly subdued over the coming year, with looser fiscal policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global demand and... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand slowed sharply in Q3, and is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to a combination of weaker external demand and a faltering tourism sector. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
