Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Apr.) Korean export values fell sharply in April and with global demand collapsing, trade is likely to remain very weak. Indeed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the May data worsened further still. 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines economic woes, Singapore slump Next Thursday’s Q1 GDP figures for the Philippines are likely to show that the economy grew at its slowest rate in over 10 years last quarter. But worse is still to come. Meanwhile, Singapore’s latest... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South Asia and Indonesia are a big worry We remain deeply concerned about the rapidly rising number of cases of coronavirus across South Asia as well as Indonesia. A failure to contain the virus would have significant economic consequences... 27th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore lockdown extension, deflation arrives The decision by Singapore’s government to extend and toughen its lockdown will further reduce economic output this year. We are cutting our GDP forecast again. Meanwhile, the most recent batch of... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Apr.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of April suggest that slumping external demand is now weighing heavily on Korean exports. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the recovery look like? Output should start rising again in most countries in Asia in the third quarter of the year as lockdown measures are eased. But economic recoveries will soon run into constraints resulting from... 20th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Korea, further easing in Pakistan With all the votes from Korea’s parliamentary election now counted, it has been confirmed that President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) and its affiliate party won 180 of the 300 seats in the National... 17th April 2020 · 6 mins read
