Asia Economics Weekly Exports to remain weak, Philippines’ budget impasse The latest export data for Asia paint a glum picture, with December figures showing exports fell in y/y terms in China, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and India. With global growth likely to slow... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: monetary policy outlook depends on rupiah Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its policy rate unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, while there was nothing in the central bank’s statement to suggest that further rate hikes are imminent... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weakest growth in a decade, rate cuts by year-end Emerging Asia this year is likely to grow at its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. Although fiscal policy should help to support growth in most of the region, this is likely to be offset... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Poor outlook for Korea, investment surges in Vietnam With President Moon-Jae-in doubling down on his labour market policies, job growth in Korea is likely to remain weak. We think the economy this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2009. Meanwhile... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Minimum wage hike to weigh on growth A further sharp rise in the minimum wage in Korea at the start of this month is likely to drag heavily on the labour market again this year, further holding back employment growth and household... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we take a look at the important elections that are set to take place across Emerging Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak end to 2018, rate cuts likely in the Philippines Data published over the past week show that Emerging Asia ended 2018 on a soft note, a trend we expect to continue into 2019. Meanwhile, a further sharp drop in inflation in the Philippines in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Advanced) The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP should be treated with caution, but it appears that weak global demand weighed heavily on growth in Q4, a trend we expect to continue this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) While December PMIs for Emerging Asia bounced back a little in some economies, they still indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost momentum over the course of Q4. Meanwhile, timely export... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Key challenges facing Bangladesh after the election The Awami League led by Prime Minister Hasina is widely expected to win the general election on 30 th December. Low wages and a rapidly growing workforce mean Bangladesh should continue to pick up low... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
