Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th May) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of May show no signs of a turnaround in exports despite the easing of lockdowns in many trading partners. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that net capital outflows from EMs eased markedly last month. And daily data suggest that outflows have remained relatively modest so far in May. One country which is still... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere Most economies in Emerging Asia will experience falls in GDP of 10-20% in the first half of the year, which is similar to what we expect in most other parts of the world. However, with many in the... 18th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tourism slump in Thailand, Korea’s “second wave” The first quarter GDP figures for Thailand (due on Monday) will make for grim reading. While all economies have been hit hard by coronavirus containment measures, the collapse in global tourism means... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th May.) Korean trade data for the first ten days of May show that exporters have taken a massive hit from lockdowns across the world. This bodes poorly for exporters across the rest of the region too. 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Infections ease, but recovery proving slow Though there are notable exceptions, there are some encouraging signs that new infections of the coronavirus are falling in many places in Emerging Asia. The slowing spread of the virus should allow... 8th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.50% to 2.00%, and with the outlook for growth very poor, we think the central bank will ease policy again in the coming months. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the rise in government debt? Government debt will increase sharply across the region this year. For most countries this will not be a problem. The situation is most worrying in Pakistan and Sri Lanka where debt relief will be... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia reopening won’t prevent sharp downturn Malaysia reopened most of its economy today following nearly seven weeks of lockdown, but with consumer behaviour unlikely to return to normal quickly and global demand very weak, the economy is still... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
