Asia Economics Update South Asia and the lockdown dilemma Lockdowns are being eased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh without any sign that coronavirus infections are being brought under control. Economic recoveries will face greater headwinds than in places... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: collapse in April, recovery to lag Labour market and industrial production data released today for the Philippines confirm that output collapsed in April. With the lockdown being eased only gradually, the recovery in the Philippines is... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values sank further in May after collapsing in April, and while this is likely to mark the bottom, external demand is only likely to recover very slowly in the coming months. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) We suspect that PMI readings do not accurately reflect the change in industry conditions last month, but they are still indicative of the fact that output remains very depressed. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for exports? Given the collapse in the global economy, merchandise exports from Emerging Asia have so far held up better than might have been anticipated. The fact that the global slump has been driven by services... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bumps in Korea’s recovery, how to interpret the PMIs A couple of new outbreaks of coronavirus in Korea’s capital city, Seoul, has led to renewed fears of a second wave of infections. The recent spike appears to have put the recovery on hold and has led... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Some signs of recovery as lockdowns are eased With new infections falling sharply across the region and with lockdowns being eased, economic activity is starting to recover. However, the latest high-frequency data that we track, including routing... 28th May 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK stops short of full QE, more action still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bps to a new record low of 0.50% and gave some vague assurances that it would act to keep long term government bond yields down. With growth likely to... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to stay low for a long time The impact of the crisis so far has been overwhelmingly disinflationary, and with demand likely to be depressed for a long time to come, inflation is set to remain very weak. A period of entrenched... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to launch QE, labour market woes in Taiwan The Bank of Korea is likely to cut its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% and step up non-conventional support at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, today’s labour market figures from Taiwan show... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update QE will become part of Em Asian central bank toolkits With policy rates close to the zero bound in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, we think it is only a matter of time before central banks in these economies implement full-blown quantitative easing (QE)... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
