Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan resilience, Korea consumers regain confidence Data published over the past week provide further evidence that Taiwan’s economy is continuing to hold up extremely well. The risks to our forecast of a 2% contraction in GDP this year are to the... 26th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts coming The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps, to 2.25%, and with economic activity unlikely to recover fully anytime soon, we expect further... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th June) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of June suggest that the slump in exports is probably past the worse. But the recovery in external demand in the quarters ahead is likely to be a protracted one... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More evidence of uneven recovery While the incoming economic data continue to point to a nascent recovery in aggregate EM activity, some countries are being left behind. Recent figures from parts of Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam and... 19th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Export bright spots Given the collapse in global demand, the relative strength of Asian exports has come as something of a surprise. We estimate that Asian exports are down by around 15% y/y, which is much less than the... 19th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking the recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while all countries in the region are now rebounding, the pace of recovery varies significantly. The recovery is most advanced in China, Taiwan and... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore Trade (May) The strength of the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors has helped Singaporean exports to outperform and is one reason why we are revising up our GDP growth forecast for 2020 from -8.0%, to -6.0%. 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How quickly will tourism recover? Tourism across the region has been decimated by the pandemic and is likely to be one of the last sectors of the economy to recover. This will weigh heavily on prospects in countries like Thailand... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th June) Korean trade data for the first ten days of June suggest that the external environment improved slightly at the start of last month. We suspect this will mark the start of a long and slow recovery. 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
