Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies come back into the firing line A spell of relative calm for EM currencies was broken this month, as several including the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Brazilian real and South African rand fell sharply, despite a more dovish US... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade downturn, Malaysia deflation, Thai election The past week has brought further bad news on the trade front, with more countries reporting a decline in exports. A turn in the electronics inventory cycle, the trade war and weaker global demand are... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the EM export slowdown The most notable explanation behind the recent sharp slowdown in EM export growth is the fall in commodity prices. But there are signs that softer global demand has also taken its toll. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates unchanged this year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today but sounded decidedly more dovish than at its previous meeting. While weak growth and low inflation will take hikes off the table, the BoT... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: is the slowdown in remittances a concern? Remittance growth to the Philippines has slowed steadily over the past decade and looks set to remain subdued over the next few years. While weak remittance growth is likely to act as a drag on... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM FX bond sales? The rise in EM sovereign foreign currency bond sales this year has been concentrated in larger EMs with relatively strong balance sheets. We are more concerned about heavy foreign currency public debt... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP governor hints at cuts, rising risk of Thai unrest An early rate cut in the Philippines is looking increasingly likely after the country’s new central bank governor, Benjamin Diokno, told a news conference on Friday that “given the decelerating... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to remain low, rates cuts coming Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back sharply in recent months and is likely to remain low over the coming quarters. With growth also set to slow, we expect some central banks to start... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
