Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from MAS The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and the IMF, inflation falls in the Philippines Pakistan looks to be close to agreeing the terms of a bailout package with the IMF. As the price for a deal, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) PMIs rose across much of Emerging Asia last month. But it’s too soon to call a turning point. The PMIs for the region’s biggest manufacturing sectors still point to a contraction in output, while... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Q1 data, Thai election, rupiah under pressure The recent economic data from across Emerging Asia have continued to disappoint. Our Emerging Asia GDP Tracker suggest the regional is now growing at its weakest pace in three years. Meanwhile... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy expanded at a decent pace in the first quarter of the year, but with exports set to remain weak and fiscal policy being tightened, we expect growth to slow over the next couple of... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
