Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Malaysia’s economy contracted by much more than we had expected in Q2, but monthly GDP data suggest that most of the slump had unwound by the end of the quarter. We think the economy will shrink by 5... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Turkey contagion risks are smaller than in 2018 Concerns are mounting that Turkey is on the brink of a fresh currency crisis which, were it to materialise, could trigger some turbulence in other EMs’ financial markets. But it’s unlikely to result... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account data suggest Turkish lira is an outlier A fundamental force behind the growing pressure on the Turkish lira is the economy’s widening current account deficit. But in most cases, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be causing current account... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking Asia’s recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that the recovery is most advanced in China and Taiwan, with India, Indonesia and the Philippines bring up the rear. Recent virus outbreaks in Hong Kong... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore rebound, Philippines cases surge Both Singapore and the Philippines saw a massive slump in output last quarter – the revised estimate of Singapore Q2 GDP next week is likely to show a 10.5% y/y fall, while data from the Philippines... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: what does election mean for the economy? The landslide victory by Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP) will allow incumbent President Rajapaksa to consolidate power. This is likely to lead to an increase in corruption and nepotism and will also... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic activity in Indonesia collapsed in the second quarter. A failure to contain the virus effectively and inadequate policy support mean the recovery is likely to be one of the slowest in the... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Uneven manufacturing recovery continues The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in July (to 51.4) should be treated with caution but, even so, it still suggests that conditions in EM manufacturing are improving. The recovery is likely to be... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still grappling with virus outbreaks Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries... 31st July 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New outbreak in Vietnam, Sri Lanka’s election After going 100 days without a single case of community transmission, over 40 new coronavirus infections have been reported in Vietnam over the past week. The jump puts the country’s economic recovery... 30th July 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack A mixed second quarter The second quarter GDP figures for the region that have already been published make for grim reading, but there is a big divergence between countries. In aggregate terms we estimate that Emerging Asia... 28th July 2020 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah worries resurface, Korea’s “modest” slowdown The Indonesian rupiah has dropped back in recent weeks amid fears over the government’s plans for the central bank to finance a large part of the budget deficit for this year. The uncertain outlook... 24th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia benefit from China’s strong rebound? China’s rapid economic recovery from the Global Financial Crisis did not play as big a role as is commonly assumed in supporting growth in the rest of Asia. We doubt a strong rebound in China from the... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook An uneven recovery An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and... 23rd July 2020 · 26 mins read
