Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update The differences for China in Harris versus Trump A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and... 12th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will deliver final rate hike in October The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s... 12th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Thoughts on the oil market sell-off The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus Will India kickstart the next commodity boom? With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 17 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We expect exports to remain robust in the near term, supported by the decline in China’s real... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update New US export controls will be harder to overcome The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it... 9th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s reassuring budget, good news on inflation Indonesia’s budget for 2025 envisages a slight decline in the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP, down from 2.7% this year. The announcement will provide some reassurance that president-elect Prabowo is... 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth will slow again next year The sharp acceleration in regular earnings growth in July poses some upside risks to our wage growth forecasts. And with smaller firms now lifting wages rapidly, too, the Bank of Japan will feel... 6th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
