Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia corruption concerns, new Pakistan forecasts Indonesia’s parliament has approved changes to how the country’s anti-corruption body (KPK) is governed, a move which could weaken its powers to investigate new corruption allegations. Meanwhile... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut, but further easing unlikely Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today is something of a surprise given that growth appears to be holding up well at the moment. Given the decent outlook for the economy, we don’t think the... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong baht, more RCEP delays Despite the worries of policymakers, there is little evidence that the strong baht is to blame for the weakness of exports. While Thai exports have struggled this year, they have performed broadly in... 13th September 2019 · 8 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia policy rate on hold, cut likely in November The dovish statement which accompanied today’s decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave its policy rate on hold at 3.00% suggests that the central bank is leaving the door open to further... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in inflation last month in... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more cuts likely The Bank of Korea sounded more bearish on the outlook for the economy even as it left rates on hold today. As such, we continue to expect more easing this year, with another 25bps cut in October. 30th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown bottoms out in Q2 The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fiscal caution in the Philippines and Indonesia Despite the poor outlook for economic growth and relatively healthy fiscal positions, the Philippines and Indonesia have both recently unveiled relatively cautious budgets for 2020. 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts, but more loosening unlikely The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
