Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts, more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% today and with growth set to remain subdued and price pressures likely to remain very weak, we are expecting more easing next year. 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect from Jokowi 2.0? The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 15th October 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: monetary policy set to remain loose The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today and given the current weakness of the economy – GDP figures also published today show growth in year-on-year terms held steady at a ten... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The contraction in India’s industrial production in August is alarming but it should prove temporary as the effect of recent policy easing kicks in. 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht set to remain strong, fiscal tightening in Malaysia The authorities in Thailand this week unveiled a couple of further measures designed to put downward pressure on the currency. But unless more is done to reduce the country’s large current account... 11th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth stable in Q3, Malaysia’s 2020 budget Countries from across the region are due to publish third quarter GDP figures over the coming weeks. The latest monthly data suggest that after slowing sharply in the first half of the year, economic... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement at the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Consumer Prices (Sep.) Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping further into negative territory in September, we don’t think there is much risk of a damaging period of prolonged deflation. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Singapore data, loosening in the Philippines The poor recent performance of manufacturing in Singapore increases the chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will loosen policy aggressively at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, in... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Fiscal policy being loosened, Indonesia an exception The Indonesian government’s budget for 2020 came a step closer to being passed this week after the parliament’s budgetary committee approved President Joko Widodo’s spending plans for the coming year... 24th September 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
