Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) softened slightly last month and continue to suggest that industry remains weak. The PMIs for China gave mixed signals, but on balance provide some hope for a pickup... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Oct.) Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big would the benefits be from RCEP? Further progress towards the establishment of what would be the world’s biggest trade deal, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), is expected over the weekend. Given the... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3) Taiwan’s economy continued to perform strongly last quarter, thanks mainly to an acceleration in government spending and strong export growth. The outperformance of the economy is the main reason why... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Tepid recovery on the horizon Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan outperforming, RRR cuts in the Philippines In contrast to the rest of the region, where growth has recently been touching post-financial crisis lows, Taiwan’s economy has rebounded strongly over the past year. GDP figures due to be published... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Protectionist threat from US unlikely to go away The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. But regardless of what the US Treasury decides, the... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: approaching the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates again today and signalled that its main priority remains supporting the struggling economy. However, if the rupiah starts to drop back against the US dollar over... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3, provisional) GDP growth was sluggish in Q3, but looser fiscal and monetary policy should help the economy to regain some momentum in the quarters ahead. With external headwinds set to remain, the rebound in growth... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2019) After small net inflows in Q2, we estimate that emerging markets (EMs) experienced net outflows in Q3. With the recent detente in the trade war unlikely to continue, further capital outflows are... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over Early indicators suggest that GDP growth stabilised across Emerging Asia last quarter. While we think the worst is now over for the region, the recovery will be slow going. 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Stimulus in Korea, Jokowi’s second term, IMF forecasts GDP figures due to be released next week are likely to show Korea’s economy remained very subdued in Q3 – we have pencilled in growth of just 0.4% q/q. But with fiscal and monetary policy being... 18th October 2019 · 6 mins read
