Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values surged to an all-time high in May, suggesting that the external sector will drive GDP higher once again this quarter. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the next few... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: economic resilience in the face of lockdown Despite the worsening virus situation and the announcement of a “total lockdown”, Malaysia’s economy is likely to hold up relatively well, as booming exports offset the hit to private consumption. We... 31st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan Fuel price inflation across Emerging Asia will drop back over the coming months as last year’s low base starts to drop out of the annual comparison. With large output gaps set to keep underlying price... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Locking down The economic outlook for much of Emerging Asia has deteriorated in recent weeks in response to a sudden jump in COVID-19 infections. Daily cases are surging in Thailand and Malaysia, and while the... 26th May 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Revised) Revised Q1 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought at the start of 2021. While a resurgence in virus cases is likely to drag on GDP this quarter, this headwind... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports continuing to boom as Asia shuts down Asian exports reached another record high last month. Strong demand for electronics, especially semiconductors, has been the key factor driving demand higher. But exports of other items, including... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th May) Korean export values are likely to surge to an all-time high this month. A buoyant external sector looks set to prop up GDP again this quarter. 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Learning to live with lockdowns Social distancing and the imposition of new restrictions in response to a surge in infections are weighing on economic activity across the region. But with manufacturing and construction sites... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The surge in Indian wholesale price inflation in April was driven in large part by the rally in commodity prices, which we think will reverse over the coming months. That should allow the RBI to keep... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
