Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam inflation rises, Thai baht falls Inflation in Vietnam reached its highest rate since 2013 in January, but we doubt the central bank will respond by raising interest rates. Meanwhile, the Thai baht has dropped 4.5% against the US... 31st January 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Coronavirus to prompt further rate cuts Before the coronavirus hit, the latest data suggested the region’s economies had turned a corner. Our regional GDP Tracker nudged up slightly at the end of last year, while GDP figures for Taiwan... 30th January 2020 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tourism to drag regional growth lower as virus spreads A sharp fall in Chinese tourist arrivals will hit economic growth in Emerging Asia hard this quarter. The impact will be even more severe if the disruption spreads to the region’s industrial sectors. 28th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Coronavirus to hit tourism With the number of new cases of the coronavirus continuing to increase, concern is rising across Asia over the potential economic impact. If the virus does continue to spread, the worst affected... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth picked up pace again in the final quarter of last year, but with the big boost from government spending likely to fade this year, we think this will be as good as it gets. 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia likely to cut again this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, and with growth set to slow further over the next couple of quarters, we think the central bank will ease policy again later... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the new flu virus in Asia Fears are growing about the spread of a newly-identified coronavirus across Asia. In this Update we discuss the likely implications for the region’s economies. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2020 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic... 20th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
