Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea still on course for an August rate hike The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and signalled that a rate hike is still very much on the table this year. While the worsening virus situation has made things... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month following the Fed’s more hawkish turn at the FOMC meeting in early June. Outflows may intensify over the coming months... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore bouncing back, rate cut for the Philippines The government in Singapore is starting to ease restrictions, and the success of the country’s vaccination programme will hopefully allow a rapid return to normality. This should set the stage for a... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the improvement in EM budget deficits Budget deficits have narrowed from their 2020 peaks across the emerging world. The improvements in Brazil and Argentina – where deficits appear to be narrower than their pre-pandemic levels – provide... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s reopening, exports soften Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Europe strengthens, but headwinds in Asia The PMIs for June show that manufacturing strengthened in most of Emerging Europe, but virus outbreaks, supply chain disruptions and a softening of demand created headwinds for industry in Asia. One... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Virus disruption to continue The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and... 30th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might hike next? The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
