Commodities Focus Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from... 19th September 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (August 2024) Even though the trade balance held up much better than most had anticipated in August, net trade will still provide a large drag on Q3 GDP growth. 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024) Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help... 16th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Retirement age increase, import slowdown The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for... 13th September 2024 · 8 mins read
