Emerging Markets Economics Update PMI slump may underestimate coronavirus hit The collapse in the EM manufacturing PMI to an 11-year low in February all but confirms that EM growth has fallen to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. But the survey is yet to fully... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) PMI readings for Asia are likely to have understated the disruption to industry from factory shutdowns in China, and the recent rise in coronavirus cases outside of China means that worse may be yet... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Feb.) Growth in Korean trade in February masks underlying weakness. Trade with China shrank sharply due to disruption from the coronavirus, and there were few signs of strength elsewhere. 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea holds, but cut still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly left its main policy rate on hold at 1.25% today. But with the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, policy support will have to be ramped up soon – we are... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Assessing the impact so far We still don’t have much in the way of hard data, but the figures that have been published so far suggest the coronavirus and the measures that China has taken to contain it, are having a severe... 25th February 2020 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Political crisis bad news for Malaysia’s economy The political turmoil that has engulfed Malaysia is likely to undermine the government’s response to the coronavirus crisis and could also set back the progress the country has made in tackling... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand The policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has so far been led by the region’s central banks, but governments are also now stepping up to the plate. Earlier this week, Singapore unveiled a budget... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of February add to the evidence that factory closures in China are disrupting local industry. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: 2020 budget should limit hit from virus With the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, Singapore’s government opted to loosen policy significantly in its 2020 budget today. Growth is still likely to slow sharply, but the strong fiscal... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Figures published today reveal that Thailand’s economy was in a poor state, even before the coronavirus hit. With tourist arrivals collapsing and the disruption from factory closures in China likely... 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The outbreak of the coronavirus appear to have caused a pull back of net capital inflows to EM bond and equity markets on a similar scale to that seen during flare-ups in the US-China trade war last... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
