Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad will it get? South East Asia and China are likely to be the worst affected countries by the current crisis, with some places likely to see GDP contract by up to 5% this year. Only a few economies in the region... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more easing to come from the BSP The central bank in the Philippines is likely to ease further in the months ahead after opting to cut its main policy rate by 50bps today. The BSP has not yet introduced loan programmes or targeted... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Good news and bad news Despite the turmoil in regional financial markets over the past week, there has been some good news to report from Asia. New cases of the coronavirus in China have continued to fall sharply. There are... 13th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia at high risk of wide-scale virus outbreak The rising number of new coronavirus infections in Asia beyond China has largely been confined to Korea and Japan. But poor healthcare provision, the density of population and high levels of internal... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data for the first 10 days of March suggest that the disruption from factory closures in China to regional industry eased recently, although both imports and exports remain depressed. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do falling oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But with the coronavirus continuing to spread and people increasingly avoiding... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea could be next to disrupt global supply chains Korea’s position as a key supplier of high-tech intermediate goods means it plays an important role in regional supply chains. Extended factory closures due to the spread of the coronavirus would... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Emerging Asian equities likely to lag in any rebound If, as we expect, worst fears about the coronavirus outbreak don’t materialise, global stock markets will probably generally recover. However, we doubt that this will be the case for equities in... 6th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea inaction, rupiah under pressure There has been some better news from Korea over the last few days, with the country reporting a drop in the number of new infections. However, with people avoiding public spaces such as shops and... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka to keep rates on hold this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today, and while it kept the door open to loosening, high inflation and the CBSL’s concern over the rupee limits the scope for... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, and with headwinds to growth worsening, we think the central bank will ease policy again at its next policy meeting in May. 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
