EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update External strains unlikely to ease as tourism slump drags on Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, ongoing travel restrictions and the spread of the more infectious Delta... 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding on the back of a fall in... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes likely The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by 25bp and made clear further tightening is likely as the central bank shifts its focus away from supporting the recovery and towards... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets appear to have eased over the past month, helped by a pickup in portfolio flows into South East Asia and India. Looking ahead, even if rising US Treasury... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in South East Asia Virus outbreaks across South East Asia are in retreat. Having taken a severe hit from the most recent Delta wave, economic recoveries in the region should now resume. Falling virus cases and reopening... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates on hold until 2023 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, and won’t be in any rush to adjust rates soon. Although the economy should start to rebound now that virus restrictions are being... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore struggling to live with COVID Singapore’s decision to reimpose some restrictions despite the country’s rapid vaccine rollout raises questions about its long-term strategy of living with COVID-19. The government’s caution will hold... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (August) While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account balances: where do the risks lie? With external positions in decent shape in most major EMs, the macroeconomic fallout from any tightening of external financing conditions should be limited. But there are a handful of EMs which look... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
