Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Apr.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of April suggest that slumping external demand is now weighing heavily on Korean exports. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the recovery look like? Output should start rising again in most countries in Asia in the third quarter of the year as lockdown measures are eased. But economic recoveries will soon run into constraints resulting from... 20th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Korea, further easing in Pakistan With all the votes from Korea’s parliamentary election now counted, it has been confirmed that President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) and its affiliate party won 180 of the 300 seats in the National... 17th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Massive recession underway, difficult recovery ahead With exports collapsing and countries across the region implementing draconian restrictions on travel and commerce, economic activity in Emerging Asia will contract sharply this year. Parts of South... 15th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lifeline for Bank Indonesia, more stimulus on the way With the rupiah recovering strongly over the past week, we think Bank Indonesia will lower interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, more countries have unveiled fiscal stimulus and support... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: QE won’t negate need for more fiscal stimulus The Bank of Korea’ (BoK) left rates on hold at 0.75% today and announced plans to purchase government bonds. There is scope for quantitative easing to have an impact, but there are limits to how... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore shutdown, new forecasts, Korea elections Singapore today become the latest country in Asia to announce strict new social distancing rules to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We estimate that the economy will be running at around 30% below... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key questions on IMF support for EMs Many EMs are now turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the fallout from coronavirus, raising questions about whether the Fund will be able to cope with the increased in demands on its purse... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
