Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the rise in government debt? Government debt will increase sharply across the region this year. For most countries this will not be a problem. The situation is most worrying in Pakistan and Sri Lanka where debt relief will be... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia reopening won’t prevent sharp downturn Malaysia reopened most of its economy today following nearly seven weeks of lockdown, but with consumer behaviour unlikely to return to normal quickly and global demand very weak, the economy is still... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Apr.) Korean export values fell sharply in April and with global demand collapsing, trade is likely to remain very weak. Indeed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the May data worsened further still. 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines economic woes, Singapore slump Next Thursday’s Q1 GDP figures for the Philippines are likely to show that the economy grew at its slowest rate in over 10 years last quarter. But worse is still to come. Meanwhile, Singapore’s latest... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South Asia and Indonesia are a big worry We remain deeply concerned about the rapidly rising number of cases of coronavirus across South Asia as well as Indonesia. A failure to contain the virus would have significant economic consequences... 27th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore lockdown extension, deflation arrives The decision by Singapore’s government to extend and toughen its lockdown will further reduce economic output this year. We are cutting our GDP forecast again. Meanwhile, the most recent batch of... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
