Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jun.) Korean export values nudged up very slightly in June, after collapsing in April and May, but while external demand is probably now past the worst, it is only likely to recover slowly in the coming... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions last month, although many readings are still low and suggest that overall manufacturers continue to struggle. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Auto sector holding back Korea’s recovery A slump in Korea’s automotive sector, which accounts for around 10% of GDP, is weighing heavily on the country’s prospects. The latest industrial production data which were published today show that... 30th June 2020 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan resilience, Korea consumers regain confidence Data published over the past week provide further evidence that Taiwan’s economy is continuing to hold up extremely well. The risks to our forecast of a 2% contraction in GDP this year are to the... 26th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts coming The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps, to 2.25%, and with economic activity unlikely to recover fully anytime soon, we expect further... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th June) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of June suggest that the slump in exports is probably past the worse. But the recovery in external demand in the quarters ahead is likely to be a protracted one... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More evidence of uneven recovery While the incoming economic data continue to point to a nascent recovery in aggregate EM activity, some countries are being left behind. Recent figures from parts of Asia (China, Korea, Vietnam and... 19th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Export bright spots Given the collapse in global demand, the relative strength of Asian exports has come as something of a surprise. We estimate that Asian exports are down by around 15% y/y, which is much less than the... 19th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking the recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while all countries in the region are now rebounding, the pace of recovery varies significantly. The recovery is most advanced in China, Taiwan and... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore Trade (May) The strength of the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors has helped Singaporean exports to outperform and is one reason why we are revising up our GDP growth forecast for 2020 from -8.0%, to -6.0%. 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
