Latin America Economics Update Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 3.75%, and we expect at least one further quarter point reduction this year. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Chile left its policy... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Apr.) Peru’s economy weakened further at the start of Q2, but with the government planning a major fiscal stimulus to offset the impact of severe flooding earlier this year, we expect growth to rebound over... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: monetary policy easing cycle has further to run Peru’s central bank unexpectedly left its policy interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, but the accompanying statement hinted at further easing and we think additional rate cuts are likely. We expect the... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Mar.) March activity data confirmed that Peru’s economy slowed sharply in Q1 and, while growth should pick up over the coming months as the temporary drag from severe floods eases, the weak start to the... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank set to ease monetary policy further The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, took most analysts by surprise, but not us. We expect one further 25bp cut, to 3.75%, over the coming... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising food inflation set to delay interest rate cuts Rising food inflation is likely to dissuade Peru’s central bank from cutting its policy interest rate for the time being. But with the economy slowing and core price pressure low, an easing of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: inflation risks mean interest rates cuts are unlikely Peru’s central bank kept its policy interest rate on hold at 4.25% and, while the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone, the risk of a surge in inflation means rate cuts are unlikely. That said... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jan.) Peru’s economy rebounded strongly in January due largely to a pick-up in the mining sector. But with a strike underway at the country’s largest copper mine, we suspect the improvement in GDP growth... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates on hold, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold once again at 4.25% and, while the economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months, stubbornly above-target inflation means the next move in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: 2016 likely to be as good as it gets for the economy Peru’s economy is likely to weaken in 2017 as the one-off boost from a surge in copper production fades and a gradual tightening of policy weighs on the non-mining sector. After expanding by 3.9% in... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
