Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru turmoil, Chile’s lockdown, hawks & doves Pedro Castillo’s victory in Peru’s presidential election caused local markets to tumble, but if his more moderate post-election comments are borne out in policymaking, asset prices are likely to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Peru? Peru’s economy appears to be suffering one of the largest economic hits of any country from the coronavirus, which is likely to spur further policy easing. With short-term interest rates essentially... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4 2019) We think that the slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 1.8% y/y in Q4 will be temporary and expect that the economy will recover more quickly than most expect this year. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Peruvian GDP growth from 1.2% y/y in Q2 to 3.0% y/y in Q3 probably marks the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be just... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, strikes neutral tone The statement accompanying yesterday’s decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates made it clear that this did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle. And with inflation and economic... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
