Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 looking brighter While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid... 27th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru turmoil, Chile’s lockdown, hawks & doves Pedro Castillo’s victory in Peru’s presidential election caused local markets to tumble, but if his more moderate post-election comments are borne out in policymaking, asset prices are likely to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
