Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
