Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Peruvian inflation? The key question for Peruvian policymakers is not so much ‘will inflation continue to fall back in 2012?’, but rather ‘will the recent spike in grains prices trigger a rebound in 2013?’. Although we... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus One year on, has Peru’s Humala lost his way? Ollanta Humala’s first year as Peru’s president has been a bittersweet one. While markets have warmed to the ex-army officer’s emergence as a pragmatic centrist, his poor rural support base appears to... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru still on course for rate cuts later in the year While there was little doubt that Chile and Peru would leave interest rates unchanged last night, we continue to believe that both countries will lower rates before year-end. On balance, we feel that... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy warming up, not yet overheating A strong recovery in investment spending has helped to boost Peru’s economy so far this year. Despite concerns from some quarters about the pace of domestic demand growth, we think that the threat of... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
