Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico losing its fiscal discipline? Plans to run a substantially wider budget deficit in 2014 have raised concerns that the Mexican government is losing fiscal discipline. But while a spending splurge is a major risk to an otherwise... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in no rush to cut rates despite slowing economy Peru’s central bank (BCRP) extended its long pause on interest rates last night and gave few hints that a change of policy is on the cards. Following a recent downgrade to the BCRP’s 2013 growth... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet after summer sell-off Latin American financial markets have bounced back in September, snapping a three-month losing streak. While the US Fed’s decision to delay tapering does little to change our fundamental view on the... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What might China hold in store for Peru and Chile? With fears of a ‘hard landing’ in China receding, the economic outlook for Peru and Chile has brightened a little in recent months. As it happens, both countries appear fairly well placed to deal with... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru The stronger tone of recent data means that the case for monetary easing in both Chile and Peru is less convincing than it was only a few months ago. Nonetheless, policymakers in both countries will... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Peruvian growth unlikely to be sustained Peru’s economy picked up pace in Q2, but the scope for a further acceleration of GDP growth from here looks extremely limited. In contrast to the consensus, we believe that the trend will be towards a... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, cuts still unlikely this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru has done little to alter our baseline view that interest rates are going nowhere this year. We expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, however... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
