Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns prevent interest rate cut in Peru The fact that the Peruvian nuevo sol has been caught up in the latest EM currency sell-off probably convinced policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.25% last night. But with economic... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4) Although annual GDP growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year, an encouraging rebound in investment and private consumption drove a sharp pick-up in the quarterly... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year. A fiscal stimulus will start to bear fruit in early 2015, but weak data... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3) Strong government spending drove a small pick-up in Peru’s GDP growth in the third quarter. But the bigger picture is that most other parts of the economy remained weak. 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another interest rate cut still likely in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but, with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to fall back into target in the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
