Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of a “nearshoring boom” in Mexico (yet) There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of... 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a slightly larger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in output in July and the survey evidence suggests that activity continued to hold up well in August. But we still... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s presidential race begins Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum was unveiled as the ruling Morena party’s presidential candidate this week and with her facing off against the main opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez in... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged down again in August, to 4.6% y/y, on the back of softer core price pressures but, with services inflation still proving stubborn, Banxico is unlikely to begin... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate declined further in the first half of August, but sticky services inflation will remain a concern for the central bank. This, alongside hawkish comments from officials... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back in July, to 4.8% y/y, but with services inflation proving to be sticky, we doubt that Banxico will turn to interest rate cuts until the turn of... 9th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Pemex will ultimately default The latest Pemex capital injection underscores that Mexico’s President López Obrador is more likely to lean towards providing a sovereign debt guarantee (either implicit or explicit) to deal with the... 1st August 2023 · 15 mins read
