Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy heading for a softer patch The Mexican economy slowed in the second quarter of this year, and growth is likely to ease further over the next 6-12 months as the external environment deteriorates. Even so, in relative terms at... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus First thoughts on the Mexican election results The dust has yet to settle on the Mexican general election and so it is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions as to what the outcome will mean for policymaking. That said, the early signs... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rates more likely to fall than rise The Mexican Central Bank (BANXICO) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% this afternoon. Strong economic growth and a recent pick-up in inflation mean that the three-year pause may last a while longer... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto wins but no PRI majority If Mexico’s President-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, is to achieve 6% GDP growth he will have to press ahead with reforms. However, with the PRI falling short of a majority in Congress, he will need to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Industrial slowdown could soon spread to Mexico The latest fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI suggests that, despite a sharp drop in the currency over the past three months or so, producers in Latin America’s largest economy are still feeling the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto still in the driving seat Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI remains on course to register a comfortable victory in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. But with the PRI now looking unlikely to win a majority in Congress there... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
