Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The slightly faster-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q1, alongside strong underlying price pressures and the delay to rate cuts in the US, mean that Banxico is all but certain... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.6% y/y in the first half of April, coming alongside the delay to rate cuts in the US (and fall in the peso), mean that Banxico is all but certain to... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next... 17th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.4% y/y in March, but the further rise in core services inflation to a 10-month high last month adds weight to our view that Banxico will pause the... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’ The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
