Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024) The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s export surge means for Latin America Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth across Latin America is likely to be weaker than most expect in the next... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of September, to 4.7% y/y, supports our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle with another 25bp cut on Thursday. 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge 1727791200 Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
