Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production growth accelerated to 3.0% y/y in December and it should continue to pick-up over the coming months as the manufacturing sector benefits from stronger US demand and the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) Mexican inflation fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.1% in January and looks set to remain close to the central bank’s 3% target throughout 2015-16. As a result, monetary policy is likely to... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) Mexican industrial production growth slowed in November, but the bigger picture is that both the manufacturing and construction sectors are performing well and should continue to do so. As such... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
