Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The small decline in Mexico’s manufacturing PMI in October suggests that the factory sector remains weak. And, with mining output still falling, industry as a whole is unlikely to be a major source of... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.) The increase in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% y/y over the whole of September, was due largely to a rise in energy prices. While the recent rebound in the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m drop in Mexican industrial production in August is disappointing coming on the back of three consecutive increases. Nonetheless, it largely reflected another sharp fall in mining output... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely The 50bp hike in Mexican interest rates (to 4.75%) at Thursday’s meeting was aimed squarely at supporting the peso. We expect another half-point increase at December’s meeting, taking rates to 5.25%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso in the spotlight The sharp drop in the Mexican peso against the dollar this month, driven partly by Donald Trump’s surge in the US election polls, has increased the chances of an interest rate hike at Thursday’s MPC... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y over August as a whole, alongside the sharp drop in the peso over the past couple of weeks, means that there is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
