Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y in December and looks set to breach the upper-bound of the central bank’s 2-4% target range as soon as this month as a result of rising domestic fuel prices... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates Fuel inflation is set to spike in Latin America over the next few months. In most countries, this will be more than offset by the disinflationary forces caused by the stabilisation of exchange rates... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small rise in Mexican industrial production in October doesn’t alter the bigger picture that the sector remains the key weak spot in the economy. We expect industry to do little more than stagnate... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in November, from 3.1% y/y in October, and it’s unlikely to stop there. We expect the headline rate to climb above the top-end of the central bank’s 2-4% target... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Mexico’s manufacturing PMI fell in November following the election of Donald Trump but the decline was very modest and doesn’t point to a renewed downturn in production over the coming months... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
