Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.7% y/y in the first-half of February and, along with the rebound in the peso over the past month, this could convince the central bank to keep interest rate on... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The small fall in Mexican industrial production in December confirms that the sector broadly stagnated over Q4 as a whole. And the early signs are that that this weakness has persisted in the early... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small? According to President Trump, Mexico is “beating the US badly on trade” and a big part of the reason is Nafta. In truth, however, the real question is not why Mexico has benefited so much from Nafta... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI to a seven-month low in January is disappointing. But with more reliable surveys, as well as the hard data, showing an improvement, we don’t think it signals a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Mexican GDP grew by a respectable 0.6% q/q in Q4, down from +1.0% q/q in Q3, and, while tighter monetary policy and the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy mean growth is set to soften further... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start Relations between President Trump and Mexico have got off to an inauspicious start, with spats over the renegotiation of NAFTA, border taxes and, of course, the Wall. From the point of view of Mexico... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets Financial conditions in Mexico have tightened over recent months, partly reflecting the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to the falls in the peso. But there are no signs yet... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points President Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA won’t have any immediate consequences for Mexico’s economy since the current agreement will remain in place until a reformed version is approved by all... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
