Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexican inflation nudged up to a fresh eight-year high in July, but this is unlikely to be enough to change the central bank’s view that its tightening cycle is over. As such, we continue to expect... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Mexico’s economy posted another quarter of solid growth in Q2 and, while the activity is likely to cool in the second half of this year, we remain comfortable with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) & IGAE (May) Mexican inflation remained unchanged in the first half of July which, combined with the latest activity data suggesting that GDP growth slowed in Q2, reinforces our view that Banxico’s tightening... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) Mexican industrial production grew by a below-consensus 0.1% m/m in May and, as a result, industry probably broadly stagnated over Q2 as a whole. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico, Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexican inflation rose further above target in June, but there are signs in the breakdown that it is close to peaking. Meanwhile, data also released today showed that inflation in both Brazil and... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: yield curve inversion doesn’t necessarily signal recession There is little evidence that the inversion of Mexico’s government bond yield curve means a recession is imminent. But it chimes with our view that economic growth is likely to soften over the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of June probably seals the deal for another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate, to 7.00%, later today. But there are also signs that... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in April underlines the fact that, even if the decent growth in the manufacturing sector continues, persistent weakness in mining output means... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation rose further above target in May and, while we expect another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate later this month, both inflation and interest rates are probably... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico survey data rebound to pre-Trump levels Survey data from Mexico strengthened markedly in May and are now generally back to their levels prior to Trump’s election victory in November. Elsewhere, the latest survey data from Brazil continue to... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with investors and local contacts in Mexico City. In this Update we summarise four quick takeaways. 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Mexican industrial production continued to broadly stagnate in March, but this is still far from the collapse that the survey data are pointing to. Indeed, if anything, today’s data suggest that the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
