Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q expansion in Mexican GDP in Q1 partly reflects the unwinding of some earthquake-related effects, but there are also signs of a broader rebound in activity. Today’s... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month reinforces our view that the next move in interest rates will be down. That said, the recent slide in the peso – if... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch – AMLO fears recede Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have made headway in allaying investors’ fears of a dramatic shift in policy if he wins Mexico’s presidential election in July. But... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in February, and the data showed that the sector is continuing to benefit from a jump in construction and utilities output in the aftermath of... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation in March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets have now come round to – that... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets appear... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industrial production stagnated in m/m terms in January, but this was partly payback for a strong 1.0% m/m increase in December. The breakdown reveals that the disruption to industry from... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in December, on the back of a (delayed) rebound in construction activity following September’s earthquakes. However, the impact of the earthquakes is... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by Q3. The consensus... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The 1.0% q/q rebound in Mexican GDP in Q4 was larger than expected but needs to be viewed alongside the -0.3% q/q contraction in Q3. While a stronger US economy will provide a prop to growth this year... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation to a fresh 18-year high of 6.8% y/y in December will probably lead to further calls for Banxico to raise rates again at its policy meeting on 9th February. While another... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
