Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in January, of 0.6% m/m, is an early sign that the huge drag the sector exerted on Q4 GDP won’t be repeated in Q1. We still hold... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s first 100 days Sunday marks Andrés Manuel López’s Obrador’s (Amlo’s) first 100 days as Mexico’s president, and some of his unorthodox policies appear to have resulted in a 50-60bp risk premium on sovereign debt... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further large fall in Mexican inflation, from 4.4% y/y in January to 3.9% y/y in February, combined with another dip in core inflation, strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year. We are... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Explaining the weakness in Mexican industry The slump in Mexican industry late last year largely reflects domestic problems, particularly in the mining sector. But with the US economy now coming off the boil, the external environment will be an... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 3.9% y/y, brings the headline rate back into the central bank’s 2-4% target range for the first time in almost two... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the Pemex problem The Mexican government’s bailout for Pemex last week is unlikely to solve the company’s fundamental issues, which stem from an extremely heavy tax burden and chronically low productivity. In the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in December means that the sector was weaker over Q4 as a whole than we (and probably the statistics office) thought. As a result, there’s a... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Banxico will row back on previous hawkish rhetoric when it meets this evening. We expect... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Preliminary Q4 GDP figures from Mexico were better than expected, but showed a sharp slowdown in growth from Q3. We still expect growth to accelerate this year and our forecast for a pick-up to 2.5%... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, combined with the recent rally in the peso, means that we no longer expect a 25bp interest rate hike at next month’s... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in November – the second consecutive monthly fall – all but confirms that overall GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4. As things stand, following... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
