Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican GDP in Q2 was driven in part by a drop in agricultural production, which tends to be volatile, but growth in the services sector was also surprisingly weak. We... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s inflation expectations becoming unanchored There is growing evidence that, despite Banxico’s best efforts, inflation expectations in Mexico are becoming unanchored. One consequence is that the monetary policy debate over the coming months will... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The disappointingly weak Mexican industrial production data for May suggest that the sector probably made a small negative contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.6% y/y last month, from 4.5% y/y in June, was due almost entirely to a rise in energy inflation, while core inflation fell to an 18-month low. The next... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what to watch after Amlo’s resounding victory The conciliatory tone of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) speeches following his convincing presidential election victory has been relatively well-received by the markets. But it’s worth... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Assessing Lat Am’s vulnerability to US protectionism Mexico, as well as several smaller countries in Central America (including Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica), are most vulnerable to a general escalation in US protectionism. But individual sectors... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The second consecutive monthly decline in Mexican industrial production in April was disappointing, but the data are volatile and must be viewed in the context of an economy that is performing well on... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation continued to fall in May, and while the markets have responded to the recent drop in the peso against the dollar by pricing in a 25bp hike at this month’s policy meeting, we’re... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s better-than-expected industrial production data from Mexico, which were the result of a surge in manufacturing output, support our view that GDP growth this year will be stronger than most... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
