Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected rebound in Mexican GDP in Q3, following its contraction in Q2, supports our view that growth will be better than most are anticipating in the coming quarters. Our forecast... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo starting to show his true colours The direct impact on Mexico’s economy resulting from president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to scrap the Texcoco airport project will be small, but it is the clearest sign yet that... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s policy proposals The platform of Mexico’s president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) has become clearer in recent weeks and a sudden lurch to the left when he takes office in December seems unlikely. One... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in August puts paid to a strong rebound in overall GDP growth in Q3. But the drop was due in large part to a slump in construction. And with... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in September will provide yet more ammunition to the hawks within Banxico. But with inflation now likely to have peaked, we still expect the next move in interest... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m gain in Mexican industrial production in July is an early sign that the slump in the sector in Q2 will reverse in Q3. This supports our view that Mexican GDP growth... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The third consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. Accordingly, assuming the peso holds up reasonably well between now and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US trade deal a win for Mexico The preliminary bilateral trade deal between Mexico and the US, announced yesterday, is a far cry from the radical overhaul of the two countries’ trading relationship that many had feared. Tighter... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican industrial production figure for June was driven in part by a surge in utilities output, which is unlikely to be sustained. Even so, we still think that industrial... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
