Latin America Economics Update Banxico continues to toe hawkish line The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates by another 25bp was very hawkish, suggesting that the board is not done tightening yet. As such, we’re still... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three questions on Mexico’s airport bond saga The Mexico City airport bond dispute appears to be at an impasse and, if the wrangle drags on, sovereign bond yields are likely to drift up, and Banxico would be more likely to hike interest rates... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo’s 2019 budget: tacking back to the centre? The prudent 2019 budget presented by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) at the weekend is probably an attempt to try to get investors back onside after a series of policy moves which... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in October was driven partly by a collapse in mining output, but other parts of industry also struggled. October’s disappointing... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in November is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp rate hike, to 8.25%, at this month’s meeting still seems more likely than... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The decline in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.25... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The larger-than-expected gain in Mexican industrial production in September chimes with the strong preliminary GDP data for Q3 released late last month, and supports our view that economic growth as a... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
