Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The small decline in Mexican inflation, to 4.3% y/y in May, confirms that the headline rate has passed its peak. Even so, concerns about the prospect of US tariffs, as well as the recent credit rating... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mexico tariffs pose significant risk for the autos sector The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Having risen in the last few months, Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.4% y/y in the first half of May, supporting our view that the recent increase in the headline rate was temporary. We expect... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The much larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, will diminish hopes of an upwards revision to the dire provisional Q1 GDP figure. With the economy... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, is likely to mark the peak and we expect the headline rate to decline over the next few months. This, combined with weak economic activity, will... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) Preliminary data showing a surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexican GDP in Q1 made for ugly reading, and the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for this year now lie firmly to the downside... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.4% y/y, coming alongside a jump in core inflation, will temper talk of monetary easing in the coming... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Mexico This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Mexico’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The decent 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in February suggests that the sector made a small positive contribution to growth in Q1, having exerted a drag of about 0.3%-pts in Q4. This... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The small rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.0% y/y, is likely to keep Banxico hawkish in the very near term. But the headline rate should resume its decline in H2, paving the way for interest... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Mexican inflation remained above target, at 4.0% y/y, in the first half of March and will probably stay around this rate in Q2. But we expect that the headline rate will decline during the second half... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in January, of 0.6% m/m, is an early sign that the huge drag the sector exerted on Q4 GDP won’t be repeated in Q1. We still hold... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
