Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased to a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in September, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of the year. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in July adds to our view that economic activity remains subdued and Banxico will cut interest rates later this month. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Preliminary GDP data suggesting that Mexico escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth in Q2 don’t change the bigger picture that the economy remains very weak. This supports our non... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
