Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The above-target Brazilian inflation reading for the middle of January reduces the chance of an interest rate cut next month. Mexican inflation also rose, supporting our expectation of a short easing... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 2.6% y/y in the first two weeks of December, from 3.0% in the full month of November, will pave the way for Banxico to continue its easing cycle in the coming months... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The fall in Mexican manufacturing output in October was largely due to the GM strike, but even if this were excluded the latest figures show weakness across key industrial sectors. This strengthens... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation remained at a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in November, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.50% to 7.25% next week. 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Mexico: Digging into the details Revised GDP figures have, again, shown Mexico as one of the worst-performing large EMs. But a closer look at the data underlines the huge variation within the country, which includes both pockets of... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Inflation ticked up in the first half of November in both Brazil and Mexico, but we doubt that this will be enough to dissuade policymakers from cutting their key interest rates in December. We expect... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Cuts continue, but markets have gone too far After loosening policy again yesterday, Mexican policymakers will probably cut rates by another 75bp over the coming six months. Given that the US loosening cycle now seems to be at an end, market... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) Mexican industrial production fell again in September, and problems in the auto sector probably caused conditions to deteriorate further in October. This adds to the pressure for policymakers to cut... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.5% in October, one of the lowest rates on record, makes another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at December’s Copom meeting almost certain. That said, policymakers have... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Mexican GDP in Q3 makes another interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November almost certain. The data release increases the likelihood of a larger 50bp... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexican industrial production rose by a surprisingly brisk 0.8% m/m in August, but with the key manufacturing sector facing a slowdown, we expect that conditions for industry as a whole will remain... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
